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This was the definition set by the founder of the NBER and it is very useful for many purposes. Certainly, there is a major gain if all economists use the same dates. Nevertheless, it is useful to ask a different question and use different dates for some purposes.

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Suppose we do not want to know the peaks and troughs of business activity, but instead we ask: How much human misery is caused by the cycle? There are many ways to answer that question, but the easiest is just to examine the duration of recessions in terms of human misery. Unemployment rates reflect human misery a lot more directly than production levels. The only problem with using the unemployment rate as an indicator is that it goes up as business goes down and vice versa. It is easier to understand a rate that goes up with expansions and down with recessions.

So an unemployment rate of 9 percent means an Employed Labor Rate of 91 percent. This can be seen for the last three cycles in Chart 1.

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The unemployment rate is all unemployed people as a percentage of labor force, sixteen years and older, seasonally adjusted quarterly data. The dates in the table for the Employed Labor Rate and for total employment are for the specific cycle of each of them. In the Employed Labor Rate series the white circles correspond to individual data points. It is thus clear that recessions dated according to the Employed Labor Rate are significantly longer than recessions using the NBER dates.

In other words, recessions will be longer than stated by the NBER or the government if they are dated by the length of time that unemployment rises. The actual dates for the last three cycles are shown in Table 1. This is a significant change from the patterns of earlier cycles, when the Employed Labor Rate and the unemployment rate tended to be a coincident indicator. With high unemployment for a longer period of the cycle, this acts to slow the growth of the U. If one is concerned with the human effects of a recession, this is not a bad definition. The percent of total retail sales at non-store retailers meaning mostly web-based stores is beginning to rise at a much faster clip: pic.

Estimates of current quarter GDP should go up a few tenths. These tariffs will target a lot of clothing and shoes.

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These sectors are mostly untouched by Trump's tariffs to date These tariffs will hit a lot of toys and consumer electronics - iPhones, Fitbits, video game consoles. These sectors have also been mostly untouched by Trump's tariffs. By choosing Dec 15 for the first tariffs on smartphones, toys and video games, Trump may avoid THAT consumer backlash President Trump may be settling in. There are new plans to impose lots more tariffs, and no plans to roll back any of them. Are investors living on a prayer today? Looks like China comments about hoping US will "meet halfway" on trade talks are lifting futures.

Newsflash: China has now made some more conciliatory comments about the trade war with the US. This is helping the markets to recover some ground - European stock markets are now a little higher again, and Wall Street is tipped to recover some ground too.

What a day! Beijing could raise its existing tariffs, I suppose but that would badly hurt Chinese consumers and companies who would pay the tariff. Instead, policymakers could use non-tariff measures.

It could allow the yuan to fall in value, or cut off purchases from America altogether in favour of other countries Brazilian soybeans, anyone? That would shake the markets, as China has been such a huge buyer of US Treasuries.

China already stated potential for countermeasures 2 weeks ago Ironically, such a move might drive down the prices on US debt, pushing up yields and ending the yield curve inversion It was already a rough day in the markets, even before China ratcheted up the trade war tensions:. Hold onto your hats, folks.


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The Dow Jones industrial average is now tipped to lose more than points when trading begins, a drop of 0. Plus, August is notoriously volatile liquidity is lower as investors take their holidays. By using this site, you consent to our use of cookies. Skip to content Mobile toggle main menu Axios. Latest Stories Latest Stories U. The market just wants a U. How AV companies are picking their U. Juul suspends U.

Are We Headed For A BIG Economic Crash?

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All these [are] things that you have to incorporate into thinking about how you manage your global risks. Delta CEO Ed Bastian told Fox Business on Wednesday that "gangbusters" consumer spending will benefit the airline by way of strong travel demand this holiday season. Meantime, Powell said, businesses around the country told the Fed that "uncertainty about trade policy has discouraged them from investing in their businesses.

While the rate cut is great for many consumers borrowers, not savers , it may not fend off the pain businesses are feeling from the trade war.